24.1.2021

Covid myths and science


I'll collect here some of the silly claims about covid crisis, actions against it, and how to respond to these claims with science and facts.

Contents include debunking claims about things:

COVID

About the virus itself:

"It's just a flu"

No, it is not. It is much more dangerous. Let's trust established epidemic experts. Johns Hopkins explains:

Since December 2019, COVID-19 has killed more people in the U.S. than influenza has in the last five years. 

Influenza is a significant burden on the population, but COVID-19 has had a vastly larger effect.

https://www.jhsph.edu/covid-19/articles/no-covid-19-is-not-the-flu.html

"It only kills old people who would have died anyway"

This claim is often made in the form "the median age of those who died with covid is 84 years and life expectancy is 84 years, so they would have anyway died this year."

No. People who say this do not understand the concept of life expectancy. When we say that the life expectancy in our country is 84 years, it's the life expectancy at birth. But the life expectancy of someone who has lived to 84 years is not 84 years; it is considerably higher. If someone has survived to the old age of 85, we can expect them to live 6 more years. (5 for men, 7 for women). So life expectancy is 91.

This statistics is from Helsinki; rest of Finland has slightly higher life expectancies. Other West European countries are similar.


But how many life years were actually lost to one covid death? There are many studies that produce slightly different results, but usually the outcome is that a covid death shortens the life of the patient by about 10 years. The keywords for finding more information is "years of life lost to covid".


"The figures are wrong because they show death with covid, not of covid" 

Wrong. Research on autopsies done on people who died of covid in Berlin and Hamburg, and many other places, show that with the vast majority of those who died with a covid diagnosis, the infection was a directly contributing factor to their death. 

It was not decisive in all cases, but in >90 % it was. The patients often also had other diseases or conditions, but the decisiveness means: if they hadn't had the infection, they wouldn't have died. Autopsies reveal damage not just in lungs, but in many internal organs. The most usual "pre-existing condition" is obesity, which is very common in Western world.

This is also demonstrated by the huge excess mortality in many places. For instance in New York, the excess mortality is higher than the number of registered covid deaths.

Reported by New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/01/14/us/covid-19-death-toll.html

Moreover, we are going to have situations where hospitals are so full with covid patients that they have to turn down other patients, e.g. traffic accident victims. So shall we then say that because John did not get inside the hospital due to the hospital overload, and died, he died of covid although he did not die with covid?


"Infection rates come from population density"

Not really. This is just a fatalistic excuse. There is no clear recognizeable pattern that would show higher population density produces higher covid infections. If you put the numbers on a graph, the result is basically a shotgun shot: no trendline.



"The fear is worse than the virus"

Get real. Paul Coelho quotes are irritating, and this is beyond ridiculous.


Sweden

Perhaps the most strange phenomenon is that American Trumpsters have taken Sweden, a "socialist" feminist-run country, as their idol. "Look at Sweden! No restrictions! No increase in mortality!"

These claims are of course rubbish. Compared to its neighbours and traditional reference group, Sweden has done not well at all. This picture is from Our World In Data, which has reliable, easy-to-use grapsh about pandemic data.



"Sweden has no increase in mortality despite covid"

Not true. It has substantial excess mortality. The claim about normal mortality is usually presented with statistics screenshots that are either home-cooked and faked, or taken before end of 2020 from statistics aggregation sites like Statista, which have defective or imcomplete data.

A common claim is to use a screenshot from Statista with data "as of 18.12." and say it has practically all of year 2020 deaths. It does not. It's missing practically all of December, almost 10 % of mortality, because death statistics in Sweden are backdated to the actual date of death and arrive with a 2-3 week delay.

In reality, Sweden had 7.5 % higher crude mortality in 2020 than in 2015-2019. The source of this data is SCB, Sweden's central statistics bureau: https://www.scb.se/om-scb/nyheter-och-pressmeddelanden/scb-publicerar-preliminar-statistik-over-doda-i-sverige/




The Excel even has a plot for how deaths in 2020 compare to 2015-2019. Here I have emphasized the 7-day rolling average trendline:

You see how the excess mortality weeks and months match with the reported covid death weeks and months.

The next trick is to say "when you calculate population increase, mortality has not increased". But that is not true either. Here is mortality per 1000 population, and the data used for calculating it - and 2020 makes a substantial break in a decreasing trend. Note that the mortality figures are fetched 18.1.2021 so there will yet be a slight increase when more deaths from 2020 are taken to records.
 



Excess mortality can be compared between different countries in Euromomo:

Germany

Same arguments have been made with Germany, "no excess mortality". That is not true either.  Deaths and excess mortality in Germany can be conveniently seen in the data of destatis:

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Cross-Section/Corona/Society/population_death.html

This demonstrates that currently (week 3 of 2021) there are almost 6000 more deaths per week than usual. That's 30 % more than usual.

Public Health England maintains an informative page that shows the registered covid mortality and excess total mortality. 



Russia

In Russia, excess mortality was reported at 230 000 people, already before the end of the year. The excess mortality in Russia is 13 %, and is six times higher than the recorded covid deaths. 

In 2020, Russia's population declined by half a million. Covid deaths account for half of this.

"There were no restrictions in Sweden"

Not true. There have been many restrictions in Sweden. Public gatherings forbidden, concerts cancelled, amusement parks closed all summer, restaurant opening times shortened and alcohol serving limited.

Typically, the restrictions were similar to neighbour countries but were initiated later and lasted longer. In fact, Sweden's covid actions have mostly been more stringent than in neighbours - they just started later as shown by the OWID Stringency index.

The list of restrictions and what is forbidden is currently (as of Jan 24, 2021) listed here:
https://www.krisinformation.se/detta-kan-handa/handelser-och-storningar/20192/myndigheterna-om-det-nya-coronaviruset/restriktioner-och-forbud


The restrictions include currently (24.1.2021):

  • Public gatherings of more than 8 people are forbidden - this applies to demonstrations, lections, religious activities, theater, cinema, concerts, and similar.
  • Private gatherings of more than 8 people in rented premises are forbidden, with exception for funerals where 20 people are allowed
    • Punishment for breaking these rules can be up to 6 months prison
  • Shops, gyms and sports facilities may not admit more than 1 person per 10 m² of space.
    • Schools and public transport are exempt.
  • Restaurants may only seat 4 people in one table; other restrictions apply
  • Alcohol may not be served after 8PM
  • Travelling to and from many foreign destinations is forbidden, except for re-entry of citizens
  •  It's forbidden to visit old people's homes.

In many areas, Sweden's restrictions have been more harsh than at neighbours; for instance, the amusement parks like Gröna Lund and Liseberg were closed all of 2020. In Finland, Linnanmäki and Särkänniemi were open, although with reduced capacity - which by the way actually made visiting them more enjoyable because you did not need to wait in queues.


Vaccines

There are also lot of myths spread about vaccines. 

"The vaccines do not prevent infection"

This is silly. The vaccines do not prevent infections 100%. They prevent them at a rate which is called efficacy, which is about 95 % for Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines. And even for the remaining 5 % who do get an infection, they get it milder and usually avoid the severest form of disease.

In Israel, where the vaccinations are most advanced, we can now see clearly that the vaccinated population is having fewer infections and hospitalisations - and this will mean fewer deaths and injuries.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-sees-60-drop-in-hospitalizations-for-over-60s-in-weeks-after-vaccination/

"The vaccines do not prevent people from infecting others"

Again, this is silly. We just don't have much evidence on this yet. But absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

It is likely that the vaccines will reduce transmissions of the disease. We just don't have the evidence yet. We'll see it soon. Vaccines do not neet to completely eliminate transmission to help curb the pandemic.

And a BBC article from early February indicates that the AstraZeneca vaccine reduces transmission substantially.

"Many people have died after taking the vaccine"

That's just a bad-faith distraction. The vaccine doesn't make people immortal. They can still die of other causes. People may even die of covid, because as mentioned, the vaccine efficacy is not 100 %, it is only 95 % and some people may have contracted the disease already before they were vaccinated. Even though vaccinated people have a milder disease on average, some people might still die.

These meme says it:


Co-incidence in time is not same as cause and effect. If every Finn were today "vaccinated" with a saline solution - which does nothing - then during the next 4 months
- 16438 will get pneumonia
- 17736 will die
- 25 will get Guilllain-Barre syndrome
- 53 children under 15 will get cancer diagnosis
- 16 will be found with narcolepsy
- people will fall ill with other sicknesses
- autism spectrum will be more common than in 2010

None of this is caused by vaccines. 

It is probably sensible to not vaccinate those who are extremely sick already, because the mild symptoms of immune response building up may weaken them, and this could indeed kill someone. But this impacts only the very small number of people who are at risk of immediate death. Others should get the vaccine, after assessing for risk factors.

Restrictions and actions

"Restrictions destroy the economy!" 

No, they don't. The current pandemic repeats the learning from 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, where cities and regions that acted more robustly had stronger economic recovery after the pandemic was over. Economy is distracted by people not wanting to get sick. This has an impact that is at least as large as the impact of restrictions.

MIT has a good report on this: https://news.mit.edu/2020/pandemic-health-response-economic-recovery-0401

"Restrictions kill more people than the pandemic. People commit suicides!"

No, they don't. The data is not very conclusive, and there are some reports that suicides would have increased in some places during the pandemic or lockdown actions. But British Medical Journal summarizes it like this: 

A reasonably consistent picture is beginning to emerge from high income countries. Reports suggest either no rise in suicide rates (Massachusetts, USA; Victoria, Australia; England) or a fall (Japan, Norway) in the early months of the pandemic. The picture is much less clear in low income countries, where the safety nets available in better resourced settings may be lacking. News reports of police data from Nepal suggest a rise in suicides, whereas an analysis of data from Peru suggests the opposite.

Any change in the risk of suicide associated with covid-19 is likely to be dynamic. The 20% decrease in Japan early in the pandemic seemed to reverse in August, when a 7.7% rise was reported. Evidence from previous epidemics suggests a short term decrease in suicide can occur initially—possibly linked to a “honeymoon period” or “pulling together” phenomenon.

https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4352

This is not so strange. Suicide rates often decrease at hard times, e.g. during wars.

"Countries that have women leaders are performing better under the pandemic"

This myth, spread by think-tanks and feminist-posing politicians, is bunk. The gender of a country's leader is not related to how well the country is going through the pandemic. Some of the well-performing countries have had women leaders. But so had Belgium. 

The claims are not supported by solid science. They are supported by cherry-picking. There are no statistically significant differences in mortality etc between countries lead by women and men.

This study is the first to comprehensively address the roles of women leaders and women legislators in mitigating the effect of the Covid-19 pandemic. Similar to Bosancianu et al., we find that there are no differences in reported fatalities between women-led and men-led countries.

 https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0244531

"Masks don't protect you, the virus is small, mask cannot filter all viruses"

Masks do ne need to be perfect to be useful. It's all about the viral load. Doses are important. To help slow own and stop the pandemic, the mask does not need to stop all virus particles. If it can reduce the load, it can give the body of an exposed person the possibility to withstand the attack. Many doctors and other health care professionals who have died of covid have been exposed to very large doses of the virus. Lacking personal protection equipment is a big risk for health care professionals.  

Masks are also not there just for protecting the wearer. The more significant impact is that it protects others. Covid disease spreads often via asymptomatic transmitters. People who have been infected but do not have symptoms (yet, or will not even get them). Mask reduces the risk of transmitting the virus to others.

Better masks (FFP2) are better than cheap surgical masks, but even the cheapest masks help.

"Wear the mask if you want, I won't"

Because the mass protect both ways, it is important that all use them. That reduces the risk of cantagion much more than just one person wearing a mask. So if you don't want to wear a mask, stay home, do not risk others.

The masks work, but they are not infallible. 



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